Airbus yesterday predicted it will unveil more than 100 orders for the A350 at next month's Paris Air Show and many more by yearend, putting it back in the race with the Boeing 787, which has recently won a slew of orders.

Airbus will announce A350 orders "in the triple digits" when the program is launched in Paris next month, said Chief Commercial Officer John Leahy at an Airbus briefing in Toulouse. Airbus is "dealing with [A350] customers right now" and is "in final negotiations" with some carriers, he said. A350 orders will be "substantially more" than his earlier predictions of 100 by the end of the year, and should be "damn close" to 200 aircraft, said Leahy.

Boeing has captured 81% of the market for small twin-aisle aircraft since the beginning of 2004 with the 787 and 767, while Airbus snared 19% with the A330-200, Airbus research shows. This is a reversal from 2000-2003 when Airbus had 64% of this market.

Airbus forecasts demand for this size aircraft to be more than 3,000 aircraft over the next 20 years, and the manufacturer expects to win at least half of these orders. "If [Boeing] gets the first 100 it doesn't bother me" as long as Airbus catches up in the long term, Leahy said. However, he admitted that Airbus could have begun its A350 publicity campaign earlier.

One of the reasons that the 787 has had a faster start is that Airbus took a long time to get its A350 designs right, Leahy said. "We have had a problem getting the plane refined and understood and out in the market," he said. Meanwhile, Boeing has poured up to $50 million into an advertising and publicity campaign for the 787, according to Airbus estimates.

Leahy also is confident there will be two more customers for the A380 by the end of the year, bringing its total to four new customers this year. He wouldn't say who these customers would be, although Airbus is talking to Cathay Pacific about the A380 and Leahy expects the carrier to eventually place an order.

Many new aircraft programs experience slow order growth at this stage of development, but there has been "no lull" for the A380, he said. Airbus has received 38 firm orders or commitments in the past 18 months. First delivery is expected in the second half of next year.

Overall, Airbus has won about 50% of the 321 new aircraft firm orders so far this year, but Boeing has captured 55% of the $28.1 billion value of these orders. By yearend Airbus will have increased its order revenue share to at least 50%, Leahy said. "We are losing the first half of the year [in revenue] but we will be coming back strong in the second half." -AS