Honeywell: More Than $131 Billion in Jets to Be Sold by 2014
Businesses will purchase more than 8,300 corporate jets valued at more than $131 billion between now and 2014, according to Honeywell Aerospace. This is up sharply from a year ago, when operators reported they would buy 7,700 jets worth $115 billion by the end of 2013.
Strong growth is expected in 2005 deliveries, followed by steady expansion through 2009 and stable production levels thereafter, Honeywell says in its latest annual survey. Key drivers are the introduction of new models, and the fractional ownership industry.
The survey of more than 1,000 flight departments and manufacturers covers aircraft up to 100,000 pounds gross takeoff weight, but does not include the new class of personal very light jet, such as the Eclipse 500, which claims an order book of more than 2,100 aircraft.
"Operators continue to tell us they recognize the benefits of business aircraft and express strong interest in new technology and new models with improved value propositions," said Bob Johnson, President and CEO, Honeywell Aerospace.
Manufacturer backlogs remain at nearly 1,500 aircraft orders, options and deposits, with about 40% attributed to fractional ownership programs. Close to two-thirds of the total order backlog—more than 1,000 aircraft—is for new models, including the Challenger 300, Gulfstream G150, Citation Sovereign, Citation Mustang, Falcon 7X and Hawker Horizon.
Deliveries fell 30% from a record in 2001 to hit bottom last year, but are now picking up again.
"The past three years have been a testament to the resiliency of the business aviation industry," Johnson said. "Aircraft manufacturers and suppliers continued to invest in the future despite the decline in industry billings," he added.
The combination of forecasted sustained economic growth and a series of new model introductions suggests that 2005 will mark the beginning of a sustained expansion of deliveries that could last for several years. Later in the decade, new aircraft offerings will sustain a market of around 800 aircraft deliveries per year. This compares with 525 to 550 new business jets this year and 506 a year ago.
Demand for commercial transport aircraft configured as business jets remained steady compared to a year ago. This segment should see deliveries of about 125-130 of these aircraft, valued at approximately $7.4 billion, between 2004 and 2014.
By segment, Honeywell's survey found:
Long-Range and Ultra-Long-Range. Deliveries are expected to average nearly 110 per year through 2014 for 1,195 aircraft. Deliveries in the second half of the decade will reach around 120 aircraft per year as product upgrades and new aircraft models enter service. New models in this category are the Gulfstream G500 and G550, Bombardier Global 5000 and Dassault Falcon F7X.
Large. Deliveries will total 760 aircraft at annual rates averaging 70 aircraft per year. Aircraft cabin size/comfort and range are significant purchase factors for this class of aircraft. In this category are the Challenger 604, Gulfstream G300 and G350, Falcon 2000, Falcon 2000EX, and Embraer Legacy.
Medium and Medium-Large. Deliveries will total 2,460 aircraft by 2014. Annual delivery rates will grow rapidly from a current 135 aircraft to about 270 per year by 2014. The medium-large or 'super-midsize' class includes aircraft like the Bombardier Challenger 300, Cessna Citation X, Gulfstream G200, Falcon 50EX and Hawker Horizon.
Light and Light Medium. Honeywell forecasts deliveries of nearly 2,350 of these aircraft by 2014, with demand stimulated by the introduction of new models. Aircraft in this market include the Hawker 400XP, Citation Bravo, Citation Encore, CJ3, Citation Excel, Learjet 40 and Learjet 45/45XR.
Very Light. Deliveries of around 80 aircraft per year in the near term will accelerate from 2006 when the Cessna Citation Mustang begins to enter service with a large backlog. Honeywell forecasts deliveries of 1,560 jets in this class through 2014. Aircraft in the Very Light segment include the Cessna CJI and CJ2, Mustang, Premier I, and the Sino-Swearingen SJ30-2.
Ultra Light or Personal Jets. Although not included in the survey, Honeywell sees a potential demand for up to 8,000 such aircraft over the next 10-15 years.
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